Climate Models in the Arctic

Climate models are a state-of-the-art tool used to address fundamental questions about climate change. The following is a list of some of these research questions specific to the Arctic and corresponding links to output from the latest climate models that specifically address these questions:

• How do clouds influence the temperatures at the surface in the Arctic?

• To what extent do the changes in Arctic sea ice extent projected over the next century influence the rates of warming in the Arctic? Does the effect of sea ice loss on surface temperatures change from winter to summer?

• How is the extent of permafrost in the Arctic projected to change over the next century?

• To a large extent, humans are responsible for excess greenhouse gases currently contributed to the atmosphere. What will the rates of Arctic warming be if we stabilize and reduce our emissions of greenhouse gases over the next century, versus, continuing with a business-as-usual scenario?

• How do these different scenario/projections of warming differ from winter to summer seasons?

• How well do climate models agree on their depictions of simulations of present day climate?

  1) What is the variability of surface air temperature simulations across many climate models?

  2) What is the variability of surface circulation features across many climate models?

• How is the length of the growing season in the Arctic projected to change over the next century?