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Arctic Climate Research at the University of Illinois



 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Projected Change of Discontinuous Permafrost in the Arctic

Climate Model: Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, CGCM3.1 Model, T63

The -2 deg. C isotherm of annual mean surface air temperature can be used as a reasonable approximation of the southern limit of discontinuous permafrost in the Arctic. One of the unknown impacts of a warming Arctic is the extent to which Arctic permafrost will degrade or melt entirely.

These animations show the projected change in the -2 deg. C isotherm (discontinuous permafrost extent) through the 20th- and 21st- centuries for each of 11 general circulation models (GCMs).

Pictures of structural damage from permafrost change in the Arctic

Output from additional global climate models are available in the left-column menu.